Tornados

Fictitious County, like much of North Carolina, has had experience with tornados in recent history. The most recent out break of tornado activity was May 5, 1999. All tornados recorded or suspected in Fictitious County have been of the F0 and F1 class. Research into tornados in Fictitious County has shown that each "section" of the county (north, south, east and west) has experienced this violent type of storm. History has also shown the type of tornado experienced displays a narrow path or track with a duration of less than one (1) minute. Damage estimates have averaged less than $350,000 per storm. There have been no deaths or serious injuries in the ten year period.

To a limited degree, the potential for tornado development is predictable, as is the possible track of storms likely to produce tornados. Generally these storms develop south west of Fictitious County and travel north east. Tornado watches and warnings are issued by the National Weather Service in Greenville/Spartanburg, SC. While F5 tornados are very, very rare, they are possible. It is also possible that a tornado can develop and strike any facility, business or residential area. The entire county, including the municipalities are vulnerable, as is the entire population. Reasonable expectation, however would be for tornados of considerably less intensity, resulting in a considerable reduction in the calculations below. A key point to remember is the size of a tornado is not necessarily an indication of its intensity.

This vulnerability assessment assumes worst case (F5) that travels the entire length or width of the county:

* Population

Population	Per Capita Income	Total storm losses in previous 10 year period
*128,975	*25,233	$3,150,000

** Potential Economic Impact from an F5 tornado, catastrophic wind event or earthquake

Structural Damage	$56,330,000
Non - structural (i.e. power distribution systems, etc.)	$179,470,000
Contents	$74,670,000
Lost inventory	$3,930,000
Relocation losses (cost of relocating population)	$57,640,000
Capital losses	$26,200,000
Wages lost	$31,440,000
Retail income losses	$22,270,000
Total Potential Losses	$451,192,000

TOTAL CUBIC YARDS	435,831
Total Acres needed to bury	45
Storage acres needed	27
Processing acres needed	18
Woody Debris (cubic yards)	130,749
Construction and demolition debris (cubic yards)	305,082
Burnable debris (cubic yards)	128,134
Soil debris (cubic yards)	15,254
Metals (cubic yards) - possible recycle	45,762
Landfilled debris (cubic yards)	115,931
Minimum cubic yards potential (+/- 30%)	305,082
Maximum cubic yards potential (+/- 30%)	566,580

**** Potential Death and injury totals from an F5 tornado or catastrophic wind event

The "Percentage of Tornado-Related Deaths 1950-1994" pie chart shows that while violent tornados are few in number, they cause a very high percentage of tornado-related deaths. The Tornado Project has analyzed data prior to 1950, and found that the percentage of deaths from violent tornados was even greater in the past. This is because the death tolls prior to the introduction of the forecasting/awareness programs were enormous: 695 dead (Missouri-Illinois-Indiana, March 18, 1925); 317 dead (Natchez, Mississippi, May 7, 1840);.255 dead (St. Louis, Missouri and East St. Louis, Illinois, May 27, 1896); 216 dead (Tupelo, Mississippi, April 5, 1936); 203 dead (Gainesville, GA, April 6, 1936). In more recent times, no single tornado has killed more than 50 people since 1971.
Provided by: The Tornado Project

*Source - NC Department of Commerce Economic Development Information System
** HAZUS Information Data base - FEMA - Dunn and Bradstreet 1994. Adjusted to 2002 by 31%. Worst case scenario.
*** Debris management program mathematical formulas - FEMA- NCDEM- GCEM- 1999
**** Based on historical information 1950 - 2000 - Tornado Project Online (www.tornadoproject.com)

Deaths	50
Serious Injury	100